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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."